High-Stakes Diplomacy: The Upcoming U.S.-Ukraine Meeting in Saudi Arabia

The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia on March 11, 2025, is poised to be a pivotal moment in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. With tensions high and stakes even higher, the talks will test both sides' ability to navigate their conflicting priorities and strained relations.

The Context: Strained Relations and Diplomatic Fallout

The backdrop of this meeting is a contentious Oval Office encounter in February between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump.

That meeting resulted in the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, leaving Kyiv in a precarious position.

Since then, Zelenskyy has faced public criticism from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Zelenskyy himself will not directly participate in the talks but is present in Saudi Arabia for separate discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

His delegation, led by Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, will represent Ukraine's interests during negotiations with Rubio and Waltz.

Ukraine's Priorities: Red Lines and Security Guarantees

Ukraine enters the talks with clear priorities: restoring U.S. military aid, intelligence sharing, and satellite access—all critical for its defense against Russian aggression.

However, Ukrainian officials have drawn firm red lines, refusing to compromise sovereignty or agree to disproportionate resource-sharing without security guarantees.

These red lines are particularly relevant given the proposed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal.

Under this agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of revenues from future monetization of state-owned natural resources to a jointly managed reconstruction fund with the U.S.

While framed as a step toward economic recovery, this deal lacks explicit security assurances, making it a contentious point for Kyiv.

Adding to the tension are inflated figures presented by Trump and Rubio regarding U.S. aid and Ukraine's mineral wealth.

Trump has claimed that the U.S. provided $350 billion in aid to Ukraine—more than double the actual figure of $119.7 billion—and that Ukraine’s rare earth minerals are worth $500 billion, when experts estimate their value closer to $12–14 billion post-war.

The U.S. Perspective: Economic Interests Over Security?

From Washington’s standpoint, the minerals deal is seen as an opportunity to secure critical resources while recouping some of its financial aid to Ukraine.

Rubio has emphasized hearing what concessions Ukraine is willing to make but has largely focused on transactional economic arrangements rather than addressing Ukraine’s immediate security needs.

This approach has raised concerns among critics who argue that the U.S. is prioritizing its own economic interests over helping Ukraine achieve lasting peace with Russia.

The absence of direct engagement with Moscow further complicates matters, leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin as "the elephant in the room."

Risks of an Impasse

Given these dynamics, the risk of an impasse looms large. If Ukraine holds firm on its red lines and Rubio continues using inflated figures to justify disproportionate demands, negotiations could stall entirely.

For Kyiv, avoiding another diplomatic blow-up like the one in Washington will require careful maneuvering—balancing its need for security guarantees with its desire to rebuild trust with the U.S.

Meanwhile, without addressing Russia’s role in the conflict or securing broader international support for peace efforts, any agreement risks being one-sided and ineffective.

A Moment of Truth

The Saudi Arabia meeting represents a moment of truth for both nations.

For Ukraine, it’s about safeguarding sovereignty while securing essential support from its most important ally.

For the U.S., it’s about balancing economic interests with its role as a global leader in promoting peace and stability.

Whether these talks lead to meaningful progress or end in stalemate remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: both sides must tread carefully if they hope to avoid further diplomatic fallout and move closer to resolving one of the most pressing geopolitical crises of our time.