Tuesday, August 15, 2023

What Do the Current Polls (Both Democrat and Republican) Indicate Concerning the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election?

There have been four Trump indictments since he left office in January 2021:


In March 2022, Trump was indicted by a grand jury in New York in connection to a hush money payment to a porn actress.


In June 2022, Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C., for alleged mishandling of classified documents.


In January 2023, Trump was indicted by a grand jury in Georgia for allegedly interfering with the 2020 election results.

In July 2023, Trump was indicted by a grand jury in New York for allegedly defrauding his supporters through his "Save America" PAC.


Polls were conducted after each of these indictments to gauge the impact on Trump's popularity among Republicans.


The polls were conducted by a variety of organizations, including:


The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

CBS News/YouGov

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll

Quinnipiac University

Reuters/Ipsos


The polls were conducted among different samples of Republicans, but they generally found that Trump's popularity remained high among Republicans, even after the indictments.


For example, a poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in March 2022 found that 60% of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump, even after he was indicted on the hush money payment charges.


A poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov in June 2022 found that 55% of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump, even after he was indicted on the classified documents charges.


A poll conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll in January 2023 found that 53% of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump, even after he was indicted on the Georgia election interference charges.


A poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in July 2023 found that 52% of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump, even after he was indicted on the "Save America" PAC fraud charges.


The polls suggest that Trump's popularity remains high among Republicans, even after multiple indictments. This suggests that he is likely to remain a major force in Republican politics for years to come.


Republican polls conducted before the 2016 election found that Donald Trump was the most popular candidate among Republican primary voters. In a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center in September 2015, Trump had the support of 32% of Republican primary voters, followed by Jeb Bush with 20%, Ben Carson with 14%, and Marco Rubio with 13%.


Trump's popularity among Republican voters continued to grow in the months leading up to the election. 


In a poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in October 2016, Trump had the support of 44% of Republican primary voters, followed by Clinton with 39%.


Here are some other findings from Republican polls conducted before the 2016 election:


Trump was more popular among white voters than among minority voters.


Trump was more popular among men than among women.


Trump was more popular among older voters than among younger voters.


Trump was more popular among voters with less education than among voters with more education.


These findings suggest that Trump's appeal was largely based on his outsider status and his populist message. 


He was seen as a candidate who would shake up the status quo and fight for the interests of ordinary Americans.


However, Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden by an historic number of votes. 


Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232, and Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million votes. 


This was the largest margin of victory in the popular vote since Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932.


There are a number of factors that contributed to Trump's loss in 2020. 


One factor was his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump was widely criticized for his slow and chaotic response to the pandemic, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths in the United States.


Another factor was Trump's divisive rhetoric. Trump often made inflammatory and racist statements that alienated many voters. This was especially true among minority voters, who turned out in record numbers to vote against Trump in 2020.


Finally, Trump was also hurt by his own personality. Trump is a very polarizing figure, and he has a long history of making controversial statements. This made it difficult for him to win over independent voters and moderate Republicans.


In the end, Trump's loss in 2020 was a combination of factors. He was a very unpopular president, and he ran a very unpopular campaign. This led to his historic defeat at the polls.


It has been shown that the greatest number of new voter registrations in Arizona, a typically Republican stronghold that the majority of voters are new independents.


This trend is growing across all states as both democrats and republicans are dismayed by both parties politics.


Arizona has seen a significant increase in voter registration in recent years, and the majority of new voters are registering as independents. 


This trend is not unique to Arizona, as it is happening in many states across the country.


There are a number of factors that are contributing to this trend. 


One factor is the increasing polarization of the two major political parties. Many voters feel that neither party represents their views anymore, and they are choosing to register as independents.


Another factor is the rise of social media and cable news. These platforms have created echo chambers where people are only exposed to information that confirms their existing beliefs. This can make it difficult for people to have civil conversations about politics, and it can lead to more people feeling alienated from the two major parties.


Finally, the 2020 election was a very divisive one, and it left many voters feeling disillusioned with the political process. This has led to a decline in trust in government, and it has made people less likely to identify with either major party.


The trend of increasing voter registration and independent voters is likely to continue in the years to come. 


This is a challenge for both major political parties, as they will need to find ways to appeal to independent voters in order to win elections. It is also a challenge for democracy, as it makes it more difficult for the government to represent the will of the people.


It is important to note that not all independent voters are the same. Some independent voters are actually closer to one party than the other, but they choose to register as independents because they don't agree with everything that party stands for. Other independent voters are truly independent, and they don't identify with either party.


The trend of increasing voter registration and independent voters is likely to have a significant impact on American politics in the years to come. It will be interesting to see how the two major political parties respond to this challenge.



And although many voters felt they had no clear choice for President in 2016, they overwhelmingly voted for the least worst candidate.


That is a fair assessment. Many voters in the 2016 presidential election felt that they had no clear choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Both candidates were seen as flawed and polarizing figures.


In the end, many voters chose to vote for the candidate they felt was the least worst. 


For some voters, this meant voting for Trump because they felt that he would shake up the status quo. 


For other voters, this meant voting for Clinton because they felt that she was the more experienced and qualified candidate.


It is important to note that not all voters who voted for Trump or Clinton in 2016 did so because they felt they had no clear choice. Some voters were enthusiastic about both candidates and felt that they were both good choices for president.


However, it is clear that many voters in 2016 felt that they had no clear choice for president.


This is a reflection of the increasing polarization of American politics and the decline of trust in government. 


It is also a challenge for democracy, as it makes it more difficult for the government to represent the will of the people.


So regardless of polls, both Democrat or Republican, the 'not Trump' may very likely decide the 2024 election.


That is a very possible outcome for the 2024 presidential election. Trump is a very polarizing figure, and he has a lot of strong supporters. However, he also has a lot of strong detractors.


If Trump runs for president in 2024, it is likely that the election will be decided by the voters who are most motivated to vote against him. 


These voters may be Democrats, independents, or even Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump.


The 'not Trump' voters will be looking for a candidate who they believe can beat Trump and restore sanity to American politics. 


If the Democratic Party can nominate a candidate who can energize these voters, they will have a good chance of winning the election.


However, it is also possible that Trump will be able to win re-election in 2024. He still has a very loyal base of support, and he is very good at motivating his base to vote. If the Democratic Party nominates a weak candidate, Trump could win re-election.


The 2024 presidential election is still two years away, and it is impossible to say for sure who will win. 


However, it is clear that the 'not Trump' vote will be very important in the election. 


If the Democrats can nominate a candidate who can energize these voters, they will have a good chance of winning.


However unlikely, a viable independent candidate would have a clear advantage.


A viable independent candidate could have a clear advantage in the 2024 presidential election if they can appeal to the 'not Trump' voters. 


If the independent candidate can convince these voters that they are the best choice to beat Trump, they could win the election.


However, it is very difficult for an independent candidate to win the presidency. They need to be able to raise a lot of money, build a strong campaign organization, and get their name known to voters. This is a daunting task, and it is only possible for a very few candidates.


In recent years, there have been a few independent candidates who have come close to winning the presidency. 


In 1992, Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote, and in 2016, Gary Johnson won 3.3% of the popular vote. However, neither Perot nor Johnson was able to win the electoral college, and they ultimately lost the election.


If an independent candidate is to have a chance of winning the presidency in 2024, they will need to be able to do several things.


First, they will need to raise a lot of money. 


Second, they will need to build a strong campaign organization.

Third, they will need to get their name known to voters. 


Fourth, they will need to appeal to the 'not Trump' voters. 


If they can do all of these things, they will have a chance of winning the election.


-Unlikely Buddha 2023



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